Aileen Stockdale is fascinated by people and how they live – but, more especially, where they live.
She says, ‘Growing up in Tyrone, I was acutely aware of the processes of change in rural life. When I was a student, the dominant view was that people were leaving the countryside and going to the cities. My research found that young people were leaving but older people were moving back. That discovery started a research journey that continues to this day.’
Based at the Institute of Spatial and Environmental Planning, Professor Stockdale is an established authority on internal migration patterns and processes and their consequences for rural communities. She has published widely in international scientific journals and has presented many papers at national and international conferences.
Her most recent research project examined mobility trends and migrant and rural community wellbeing in three areas of the ‘Celtic fringe’ – the Glens of Antrim, the Isle of Bute in Scotland and Radnorshire in Wales – focussing on people aged between 50 and 64 who moved into these areas.
‘A lot is known about retirement migration but what about people in that window just before they retire? Are they making decisions based on an expectation that they’re going to retire in ten years or whatever? This is a generation that’s living longer and, leaving aside the recession and things like changes to pensions, are in general as affluent as they’ve ever been. Because they have the means, they’re able to plan ahead.’
The research exposed differences in the three areas. People moving to the Isle of Bute tended to be highly-qualified professionals, some of them English. In the Welsh area migrants were more blue collar, moving from"Demographic ageing – it’s only in the last few years we’ve started to really think about it." the Midlands. Part of the area is even called ‘little Birmingham.’
‘And in the Glens we found something quite distinctive. There was a certain amount of return migration but there were also people who had never lived there. However, one or other of their parents had. This was second generation return migration – a desire to return based on childhood memories of visits with their parents.’
The study also addressed attitudes. ‘You always think that when people move somewhere, they adopt a nimby – not in my back yard – attitude and prevent further development taking place, for example; or they take over the running of things, house prices go up – all the negative things come to mind. But there’s a positive side. New people offer an opportunity for the rural economy. They may set up a business themselves or bring skills, knowledge, expertise, and the ability to help a local young person start a business, for example. They have an extensive network of contacts. I don’t think we tap into enough of these potential opportunities. There’s a real resource here that isn’t being used.’
But there is another extreme. ‘New people get involved in local community events and activities. There’s the potential, especially within the voluntary sector, that they become overly relied-on. And so you may end up with an ageing population becoming increasingly dependent on ageing people.’
The project was funded by the Economic and Social Research Council. ‘Part of their requirement is that the results are disseminated, not just in the academic world but to policymakers and people on the ground. We ran evening seminars in each area and were taken aback by the sheer numbers of people who came along.’
Through this kind of community contact, the research is proving of enormous interest to policy-makers and may have a long-term impact on strategic decision-making at local and government level.
Aileen emphasises, ‘All you can do is present the findings. We can’t dictate policy but we can make sure we reach every relevant government department and organisation.’ One such is the Homes and Communities Agency in London that has shown particular interest in the Welsh study and potential housing consequences.
‘We’ve known for a long time that demographic ageing will happen, yet it’s only in the last few years that we’ve started to really think about it. At the moment the issues being considered relate to pensions and health care but my argument is that there are other aspects which we need to be pro-active about.
‘Twenty years down the line – what types of society do we want for our ageing communities?’
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