G-EULuxemb97

Greece on Turkey’s EU bid in Luxemburg (1997)   

Suggested Citation: Neophytos G. Loizides, Greek-Turkish Negotiations and Crises 1983-2003 Dataset , Queen's University Belfast (available online at http://www.qub.ac.uk/research-centres/CentrefortheStudyofEthnicConflict/TeachingResearch/Datasets/Greek-TurkishNegotiationsandCrises1983-2003/#d.en.173636)

Case Summary:

Stability in the Eastern Mediterranean depends, to a large extent, on Turkish accession to the European Union. G-EULux examines Greek crisis behavior over Turkish accession in the EU at the Luxemburg Summit in December 1997. At this summit, Greece spearheads a movement in the EU Luxemburg Council to exclude Turkey from the enlarged Union.[i]  For the period 12/1/19971/1/1998, Lexis/Nexis provides 27 results for terms “Luxemburg,” “crisis,” “Greece,” and “ Turkey ” (full text search under European News Sources). In response, witnessing the progress of Cyprus towards inclusion in the EU, Ankara hardens its position on Cyprus , moving from accepting federation to demanding confederation.[ii]  

Case Study Features

Effectiveness of Offensive Policies: 1

Greece is in a position to harm Turkey in the EU, especially if at least one large country in the Union also supports its position.

Offensive vs. Defensive Signals Indistinguishable: 1

By blocking Turkey’s accession, Greece defends its own strategic interests in Cyprus and the Aegean. However, the Turkish president Süleyman Demirel sees this move as detrimental to regional peace [iii] and argues that Greece will pay a price for obscuring Turkey ’s EU membership bid.[iv] This indistinguishability in the actions of the two sides is acknowledged by outsiders to the conflict.[v]

Enduring Ethnic Rivalries : 1

There are “enduring ethnic rivalries,” resulting primarily from the conflicts in Cyprus, Thrace and the Aegean.

Domestic Challenges : 0

There is no major threat against the Simitis government. 

 

Confrontational Policies (dependent variable): 1

Greece leads the effort to exclude Turkey from the enlarged Union.[vi]

 


[i] Edward Mortimer, “Last week's EU summit may look like a Greek triumph. But the price could be permanent partition of Cyprus ,” Financial Times, December 17, 1997, p. 20.

[ii] For statements in favor of federation, see “Radio Bayrak,” in Turkish 1530 gmt 16 Nov 83, “TRNC's Call for Recognition,” BBC Summary of World Broadcasts , November 18, 1983; for hardening positions towards confederation, see Radio Bayrak, Nicosia, in Turkish 1030 gmt 2 Sep 98, “Turkish Cypriot Party Leader Criticizes Denktas’s Confederation Proposal,” BBC Worldwide Monitoring, September 3, 1998.

[iii] TRT TV, Ankara, in Turkish 0800 gmt 27 Dec 97, “Demirel says Greece ‘detrimental to regional peace’” BBC Summary of World Broadcasts, December 30, 1997. 

[iv] ,Greece to pay for undermining Turkey : Turkish president” Agence France Presse December 27, 1997.

[v] Philip H. Gordon, “ Turkey Overreacts, but the EU Is Not Blameless”,  International Herald Tribune, December 20, 1997, p.6.

[vi] Edward Mortimer, “Last week's EU summit may look like a Greek triumph. But the price could be permanent partition of Cyprus ,” Financial Times, December 17, 1997, p. 20.