Ms Judith Foster
BEng Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Queen's University Belfast, 2015
Electric Load Forecasting with Increased Embedded Renewable Generation
In Northern Ireland, due to the relatively small size of the power system coupled with the ambitious targets for incorporating renewable generation (40% energy generation from renewable sources by 2020), SONI/NIE in conjunction with Eirgrid is at the forefront of identifying, and solving, many of the technical challenges associated with the integration of renewable energy into power systems. One of these challenges is accurate load forecasting. Power System Operators must supply enough electricity generation to meet demand at all times. Consequently, load forecasts are used to guide planning and scheduling of the optimum generation on a day ahead basis. Predicting system load as accurately as possible is crucial to ensure system stability and efficient power system operation. However, this is becoming increasingly challenging due to the distortion in load forecasting caused by small-scale wind and photovoltaic generation, the contribution of which is intermittent and often invisible to Power System Operators.
The objectives of this research project are to examine the impact of the growth in small-scale distributed generation on load forecasting accuracy, investigate models that predict the invisible distributed generation component, and to develop new load forecasting tools that take account of this generation.