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on Wednesday-Thursday, 15-16 September,2004.
УModelling link flows and travel times for dynamic traffic assignmentФ.
Schedule of talks, and abstract/ outline for each
The talks cover a wide range of topics and approaches hence it was not possible to group them by topic, except for a few on car following models, hence the order is otherwise somewhat random. I have put a few that appear more general in the first session and a couple on the second day for a few people who can not get here until then.
The sessions are approximately 1╜ hours each with 3 talks per session, hence an average of 30 minutes per talk, including questions and discussion. Since there is just one stream (no parallel sessions to synchronise) (one stream), it may possible to be a bit flexible on times if necessary. Eg. if one talk finishes early we can go on to the next. Also, since the order is somewhat arbitrary, if two speakers wish to swap their time slots that should be possible
All sessions are in the Senate Room, which is about 50 yards from the Great Hall where the lunch is provided.
Wednesday 15th September 2004.
12:30-2:00 . Lunch in Great Hall
2:10-3:40. Session 1. General.
Ben Heydecker. "What are traffic models for?".
This will touch on the role of traffic models in dynamic traffic assignment process, and based on that, explore the requirements on them. This will give an opportunity to discuss models that are suitable for the purpose, and to consider some consequences of adopting them.
Ronghui Liu. УA Glimpse inside the Black BoxФ.
This talk will give a general overview of the network micro simulation modelling. It will introduce its main model components (ranging from the route and departure-time choice mechanism, to the car-following, lane-changing and gap-acceptance models); the formulations, assumptions and constraints of the model components; the network representation; and the software implementation issues.
Malachy Carey. УSome general or desirable properties for predicted travel times.Ф
Many different models and approaches have been used to predict travel times and flows varying over time on road networks. Though the results from differ between models, it is desirable that the predicted travel times should at least satisfy certain minimum properties. We consider the general properties of such predicted travel times, and the interrelationships between properties. In particular we consider, uniqueness and continuity, first-in-first-out (FIFO), causality and time-flow consistency.
3:40-4:00. Coffee
4:00-5:30. Session 2.
David Watling (presenter), Richard Connors and Agachai Sumalee. "Encapsulating between-day variability in demand in analytical, within-day dynamic, link travel time functions".
An established stream of research in the dynamic traffic assignment field involves the investigation of the appropriateness of alternative forms of link travel time function for representing the impact of demand patterns that vary within the peak period or during the day. Prominent in the investigation of such "within-day dynamic" link travel time functions has been the work of Daganzo, Friesz, Carey and Heydecker, among others. The purpose of this presentations is to report on preliminary investigations of a study, supported by the UK Department for Transport, investigating the impact of *between-day* variability in the demand (in-flows) to a given link on the expected link travel time profile. Simulation experiments are reported, and the outline of a method described for extending existing link travel time functions to incorporate analytical terms that capture the effect of this additional source of variation.
Chandra Balijepalli. УDynamics of Traffic Flow in Day-to-day and With-in Day ContextsФ.
This research considers an approach that unifies the evolution of the driversТ route choice decisions as a result of the learning process based on their day-to-day experiences, as a stochastic process and the dynamics of traffic flow phenomena with-in the day. The aim of this research is to approximate the equilibrium probability distribution considering the traffic flow dynamics over day-to-day and with-in day contexts. This presentation introduces the overall modelling framework, demonstrates the principles involved through suitable numerical examples and discusses the issues involved in computing the parameters such as the Jacobians of travel time functions.
Andy Chow. "Traffic Models for Dynamic System Optimal Assignment".
Consider that optimal control theory is a useful tool of determining dynamic system optimal. We investigate the requirements on traffic models for this kind of formulation. We will discuss the suitability of traffic models for using optimal control theory and the consequence of adopting them in system optimal assignment.
7:00-7:30. Reception in Canada room. (Wine and Soft Drinks)
7:30. Dinner in Canada Room.
Thursday 16th September 2004.
9:10-10:40. Session 3. Car following models.
Jiao Wang. УA Car Following Model for Motorway TrafficФ.
A new car-following model is proposed here that aims to capture some of the key motorway flow characteristics, namely traffic breakdown, hysteresis, shockwave propagation as well as close-following behaviour. Under the different driving states, i.e. non-alert state, alert state and close-following state, drivers apply different reaction time and acceleration. Theoretical analysis of the macroscopic flow-density relationships of the model is discussed. Simulation experiments are conducted and the results are examined at both the macroscopic level with regard to speed breakdown and traffic hysteresis, and the microscopic level with regard to gap distribution and shockwave propagation. The simulated model properties are compared with other car-following models and with the real observations.
S Gibson and Mark McCartney. УRing Car following Models.Ф
A simple microscopic car following model is proposed to represent the motion of N vehicles travelling in a closed СringТ in which one driver (the first vehicle in the stream) has a preferred velocity profile.а The implication of the ring model as opposed to the more typical Сstraight lineТ model is that the last vehicle in the stream is itself being followed by the lead (first) vehicle.а This model gives rise to a system of N coupled time delay differential equations which are solved approximately (using a Taylor series expansion in time delay) and numerically using a 4th order Runge Kutta routine and a simpler Euler routine.а
In order to study the effect of the vehicles travelling in a ring the results obtained under various initial conditions and forms of preferred velocity of the lead vehicle are compared with the results obtained for equivalent conditions in the straight line model.а It is found that introducing a disturbance into the behaviour of a vehicle in the ring model has a much greater initial impact on the behaviour of the following vehicles than if a similar disturbance is introduced into the motion of the lead vehicle in the straight line model.а
The local stability of the vehicles in the ring model is analysed for various initial system conditions and general analytic equations are presented for the boundary between local stability and instability.
Cino Bifulco and Fulvio Simonelli. УAnalyses and comparison of car-following models against real traffic microscopic dataФ.
Some results regarding the calibration of the parameters of well-known car-following models (Gipps and GM) against disaggregated data (individual driversТ trajectories, taken via GPS), as well as some consideration regarding the stability and sensitivity of these models with respect to the calibrations of the parameters.
10:40-11:00. Coffee
11:00-12:30. Session 4.
Eddie Wilson. "Microscopic models of highway traffic: an overview and ongoing refinements using unaveraged loop data".
I will give an overview of some mathematical ideas that attempt to explain spatial pattern formation in highway traffic, as a possible future refinement to link-flow modelling. In the past, microscopic models have been written down with hand-waving references to "obvious" driver behaviour. The dynamics are then analysed: some models do well, others (e.g. Gipps) are poor. Using recent loop data / camera techniques we should be able to create much more accurate models of driver behaviour: but how much detail does one really need given that the emergent macroscopic dynamics is all that we really care about?
Wai Yuen Szeto, 'On the Solution Existence of the Dynamic Traffic Assignment Problem with Physical Queues'.
This presentation examines the solution existence of the dynamic traffic assignment (DTA) problem with the physical queue representation. Through a counter-example, the analysis shows that queue spillback and junction blockage cause the occurrence of a travel time discontinuity jump. Under certain demand and network conditions, this travel time discontinuity jump precludes the possibility of solutions for the dynamic traffic assignment problem. This study concludes that allowing for the more realistic physical-queue representation, solution existence for the DTA problem is not guaranteed.
Yingen Ge and Malachy Carey. УComparison of heuristic methods for path reassignment in dynamic user equilibriumФ.
Some methods for dynamic traffic assignment iterate between Уpath loadingФ and Уpath (re)assignmentФ, simulating an equilibration process The path loading component has been much investigated in the literature, but much less is known about the effects of alternative path (re)assignment methods. We numerically compare three methods for path (re)assignment to see how these affect the equilibration solution process, and we find that they behave in ways that have not been reported in the literature. In particular we compare the speed of convergence, accuracy of solution, and the effects of varying parameters in each method.
2:00-3:30. Session 5.
Bidisha Ghosh,. Biswajit Basu & Margaret OТMahony.
УTime-series modeling for forecasting vehicular traffic flow in DublinФ.
An effort of modeling the traffic flow in a congested urban transportation network in the city of Dublin is done in this paper. Three different time-series models, viz. random walk model, Holt-WintersТ exponential smoothing technique and seasonal ARIMA model are used for modeling of traffic flow in Dublin. Simulation and short-term forecasting of univariate traffic flow data is done using these models. The data used for modeling are obtained from loop-detectors at a certain junction in the city center of Dublin. Seasonal ARIMA and Holt-WintersТ exponential smoothing technique give highly competitive forecasts and match considerably well with the observed traffic flow data during rush hours.
and
Bidisha Ghosh, Biswajit Basu and Margaret OТMahony. УBehaviour of whole-link and hydrodynamic models under impulsive inflow loadingФ.
There has not been much research comparing Уwhole-linkФ models with hydrodynamic models under realistic conditions. This paper compares the latter with a whole-link model under a condition of suddenly changing inflow rate. These sudden changes may be continuous as well as discontinuous. The whole-link and LWR models are compared using a linear travel time function, which gives same/comparable results under continuous inflow. In case of inflow with impulse loading (continuous and discontinuous) they behave quite differently. The whole-link model shows pseudo-periodicity in discontinuous case, but not distinguishable in continuous case. The LWR model shows multiple-solution zone for both the problems, when the slope to the inflow rate was negative after a sharp change. This leads to shockwave solution. Instead of applying the complex shockwave solution, an assumption is made to propose a simple realistic solution.
Open discussion session,
on, where we go from here in this research area, strengths or weakness in this research area, and/ or other topics suggested by participants earlier in the workshop.
3:40-4:00. Coffee
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