All welcome, but you are asked to email m.mcgovern@qub.ac.uk if you would like to register as places may be limited. Tea/coffee and lunch will be served, please advise if you are attending and have any dietary restrictions.

The abstract is below.

January 10th 2019, 1300-1430, Lecture Theatre, Riddel Hall
 
Abstract
 
Many low- and middle-income countries are experiencing high and increasing ambient fine particulate air pollution (PM2.5). The effect of PM2.5 on mortality is usually modelled using concentration response curves extrapolated from studies conducted in settings with low ambient air pollution. We directly estimate the association between child mortality and exposure to PM2.5, both overall and by PM2.5 source. We pool data of over 500 000 children from 69 nationally representative Demographic and Health Surveys that were conducted in 43 low- and middle-income countries between 1998 and 2014, and we calculate in-utero exposure to ambient PM2.5 using high resolution satellite data that is matched to the child’s place of residence. We estimate the association between early childhood PM2.5 exposure and the odds of child mortality, adjusting for child level, parent-level, and household-level characteristics. We find that exposure in utero an the first month of life to overall PM2.5 above 12.3 µg/m³ is associated with a higher odds of child mortality, particularly neonatal mortality. Exposure to dust and sea-salt has little effect, while exposure to other (mainly anthropogenic, carbonaceous) particulates is associated with increased odds of neonatal mortality even at levels as low as 3.4 µg/m, with exposure above the median level raising the odds of neonatal mortality by over one third. While our results are consistent with the current World Health Organization guideline of limiting the overall ambient PM2.5 level at less than 10 µg/m³, they suggest the need for a much lower limit for harmful, carbonaceous PM2.5.