QUEEN’S BUSINESS SCHOOL INFORMATION TECHNOOGY, ANALYTICS & OPERATIONS (ITAO) SEMINAR SERIES

Wednesday 29^th April

1pm

“Expectation Collapse in Complex Supply Chains: A Behavioral Perspective on Resilience and Performance”

Arash Azadegan

Rutgers University

Abstract

Why do supply chains that appear highly resilient before a disruption often fall short of expectations once disruption occurs? This talk addresses this puzzle by reframing supply chain resilience as a perceptual and dynamically updated construct rather than a purely objective capability. Integrating complexity theory with expectation disconfirmation theory, the study develops a framework in which structural and relational dimensions of supply chain complexity act as cognitive cues that shape managerial expectations of resilience ex ante and drive evaluative revisions ex post.

Using a two-stage vignette-based experiment with experienced supply chain managers, the research captures expectation formation prior to disruption and subsequent performance evaluation after disruption. The findings reveal a systematic expectation–outcome misalignment. Structural complexity leads managers to form inflated resilience expectations, resulting in stronger negative performance shifts when disruptions expose hidden interdependencies. In contrast, relational complexity anchors expectations in prior interaction and attenuates negative disconfirmation. Supply chain visibility further reduces expectation error by aligning expectations more closely with system behavior.

The study contributes to supply chain resilience research by introducing the concept of resilience shift as a core behavioral mechanism and by repositioning complexity as a cognitive input into expectation formation. More broadly, it extends expectation disconfirmation theory into the domain of supply chain management, offering a behavioral explanation for post-disruption performance assessments in complex adaptive systems.

Bio

Dr. Arash Azadegan is Professor of Supply Chain Management and Department Vice Chair at Rutgers Business School, Rutgers University. His research focuses on supply chain disruptions, resilience, and response and recovery across commercial and humanitarian contexts, alongside inter organisational creativity and innovation. He has published extensively in leading journals, including Journal of Operations Management, Journal of Supply Chain Management, Production and Operations Management, and International Journal of Operations & Production Management, and is a recipient of the IJOPM Best Paper Award. He holds a PhD from Arizona State University and brings over a decade of Fortune 500 industry experience, grounding his research in managerial practice.

QBS Conference Hub, Seminar Room (01.012)

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