Progress is often thought of as a steady linear progression. The reality is often different. Indeed, political or economic advancement can resemble something of a game of Snakes and Ladders. That’s been the case within Northern Ireland over the last three decades.

The Northern Ireland of today is radically different economically, politically and socially than it was when the first Top 100 appeared. Some areas of the economy have scaled to heights never envisaged. Conversely, parts of the economy have fallen to levels never imagined thirty years ago.

This period is bookended by the hopes and fears of two US presidents – Bill Clinton and Donald Trump. The former turned on the Christmas lights outside Belfast City Hall while the latter is switching off the lights of the established world order.

In November 1995 – Bill Clinton became the first sitting American president to visit Northern Ireland, underscoring the priority that was the peace process.  The William J Clinton Leadership Institute at Queen’s Business School remains part of that legacy.   

Job creation was the number one economic development priority thirty years ago. The local economy was blighted by double-digit unemployment rates. In the Spring of 1995 Northern Ireland’s unemployment rate stood at 11.3%. Today it stands at 1.5% - no economist in the 1990s thought we would ever see the Holy Grail of ‘full employment’. The number of people in work has increased by almost 250,000 or 40% over the last thirty years.  As for the goal of job creation – Mission Accomplished!

Unfortunately, this improvement is tempered by Northern Ireland’s persistently high rates of economic inactivity and low productivity. More than one-in-four of the working-age population are neither in work nor looking for work. Worryingly, long-term sickness, particularly amongst younger people, is more widespread today than it was in the mid-1990s. Mental rather than physical health has moved centre-stage too.    

Whilst Northern Ireland did do double-digit unemployment rates, we didn’t do recessions! Or so we thought. An underdeveloped private sector coupled with a large public sector insulated us from the early 1990s recession. That lulled policymakers into a false sense of security. Fast forward to today and we have all become veterans of multiple recessions and economic shocks. Ranging from the housing market crash and cost-of-living crises to Brexit and the pandemic.

The tourism industry has been transformed scaling numerous ladders on multiple fronts. The product offering has been enriched by a series of signature projects such as at the Giant’s Causeway and Titanic Belfast. The latter’s success exceeded expectations leading to accolades including world’s leading tourist attraction in 2016. The fact that 57 cruise ships are due to dock in Belfast in 2025 illustrates the tourist transformation.

Belfast’s International Convention Centre (ICC), at the Waterfront Hall, has hosted global conferences and provided a shot in the arm for business tourism. Overall, the redevelopment and regeneration of Belfast’s Laganside has been one of Northern Ireland’s biggest success stories to date in terms of delivering a long-term plan. 

Electric cars, Wi-Fi and wireless trams (Gliders!) were the stuff of dreams in the mid-1990s but are now taken for granted. Unfortunately, the travel time by train between Belfast and Dublin isn’t significantly shorter than it was three decades ago.

Our transport infrastructure has witnessed Snakes and Ladders over this time period. Gone are the days of waiting at a zebra crossing at Toomebridge, or getting stuck behind a bin lorry at Duneane on the main road between Northern Ireland’s two largest cities. The A6 has benefited from notable, but belated, upgrades.

However, the physical state of the road network was better in the 1990s than today. Back then, when the Celtic Tiger was a cub, crossing the border from North to South was accompanied by a noticeable deterioration in the quality of the roads. The opposite is true today.   

Today the local economy is reaping the rewards of investment in key economic infrastructure in the 2000s such as Momentum One Zero (formerly ECIT) and various film studios.  Northern Ireland has become a global cybersecurity hub and a top European investment location for US cyber security firms. Similarly, our burgeoning film industry is recognised the world over.  Who saw these tall ladders 30 years ago?

That foresight has paid dividends. Unfortunately, lack of foresight and investment, have led to huge social, economic and infrastructure problems that the economy contends with today. The current housing emergency is a case in point. Northern Ireland’s housing supply crisis is largely linked to a lack of adequate wastewater infrastructure. Almost £5bn worth of housing investment (19,000 houses) has planning permission but cannot proceed. The level of housebuilding hit a 64-year low in 2023 before rebounding last year. But the number of completed dwellings is still around 2,500 fewer than 30 years ago despite a 16% rise in population. The housing crisis is arguably the biggest Snake that the economy currently faces.

The decline in public services, notably the NHS, has been another huge Snake. Many of us now look back to those halcyon days of the 1990s when visits to A&E or the GP was relatively straightforward and hospital waiting lists were measured in weeks not years. Private sector healthcare has boomed as a result. 

One of the starkest juxtapositions between now and the mid-1990s concerns geopolitics and the global world order. Back then, the Western world was basking in relative peace and what Francis Fukuyama called “The End of History”. The end of the Cold War and the break-up of the Soviet Union spawned the view that Western liberal democracy had won.

But the last decade is proof that such a conclusion was premature. With a  resurgent Russia & China flexing their respective military muscle and the latter developing into an economic powerhouse over the last 30 years.

The 1990s & noughties was an era of free trade, economic integration and globalisation.  Brexit was a vote against that direction of travel. Trump, by implementing the biggest tariff increase in a 100-years is upending the established world order of the last 70 years.

The geopolitical tectonic plates are shifting. Economies, governments and businesses will have to adapt to these seismic changes. There may be more Snakes than Ladders in the year ahead.  Indeed, we may be playing a totally different board game altogether!

Printed in the Belfast Telegraph 13th May 2025, authored by Richard Ramsey

Richard Ramsey

Professor of Practice in Economics & Policy

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Zara McBrearty - z.mcbrearty@qub.ac.uk