48% of respondents regard it as ‘on balance a good thing for Northern Ireland’, the lowest level since June 2021; 36% disagree, a figure that has remained quite unchanged since the Windsor Framework was adopted (to modify the implementation of the Northern Ireland Protocol) in February 2023. 

Just over half of voters (52%) view the Windsor Framework as an appropriate way to manage the effects of Brexit. This is below the 60% support levels of February 2024 but still significantly higher than the 35% who think it is not appropriate. The issue on which there is most consensus among respondents is that Brexit is on balance a bad thing for Northern Ireland: 63% think so, including 55% strongly, compared to 31% thinking it good for the region. 

The research was carried out by Professor David Phinnemore and Professor Katy Hayward from Queen’s and is the 14th in the ‘Testing the Temperature’ series on NI voters’ views on Brexit and the Protocol/Windsor Framework.  

The latest poll, conducted by LucidTalk for Queen’s between 3 - 6 October 2025, used a weighted sample of 1201 respondents from across Northern Ireland. 

The survey is the first to be conducted since the UK-EU Summit in May. It finds that voters in Northern Ireland are most supportive of UK-EU plans for closer cooperation on health security (e.g. in relation to pandemics) and on an EU-UK agreement on agri-food (or ‘SPS’) which is likely to substantially reduce the impact of the Irish Sea border.  

It also tests public opinion on the recommendations of the Review of the Windsor Framework by Lord Murphy. The most popular priority was for the UK Government to reduce frictions on goods moving from Great Britain to Northern Ireland (ranked first or second by 44% of respondents). Another 38% of voters prioritised encouraging the UK Government and Northern Ireland Executive to highlight the commercial benefits of dual market access for local manufacturers. This relates to the finding that 61% believe the Windsor Framework offers unique economic opportunities for the region – a figure that is down from 68% in June 2024.  

Speaking about the latest findings, Professor David Phinnemore from the School of History, Anthropology, Philosophy and Politics at Queen’s said: “Support for the Windsor Framework has weakened, although a majority of voters still believe it provides opportunities which could benefit Northern Ireland economically. Of the recommendations from Lord Murphy’s recent review of the Windsor Framework, the main priority for voters are an SPS agreement to reduce frictions on GB-NI goods movements and greater government efforts to emphasise and publicise commercial benefits of dual market access.” 

Professor Katy Hayward from the School of Social Sciences, Education and Social Work at Queen’s commented: “There are broadly three groups of opinions: those against the Windsor Framework in principle, those for it in principle, and those who accept it as a compromise but are alert to both difficulties and opportunities it might give rise to. Since our last poll in April there have been proposals to address difficulties and increase opportunities – most notably relating to the UK-EU ‘reset’. This poll is one indication of why there is an urgent need for progress on these.” 

Other key findings include:   

• More voters see the impact of the Windsor Framework on Northern Ireland’s place in the UK internal market as negative (44%) rather than positive (29%) - a clear reversal of the situation in February 2024 (41% positive, 34% negative). 

• While more voters continue to see its effect on political stability in Northern Ireland as negative (42%) rather than positive (35%), this gap has narrowed since October 2023 (55% negative, 26% positive). 

• Perceptions of the Windsor Framework’s impact on British-Irish relations have improved, with 40% positive, 33% negative - a reversal of the situation in June 2024 (41% negative, 31% positive).    

• More voters see the impact of the Windsor Framework on Northern Ireland’s constitutional place in the UK as negative (46%) than positive (18%). The gap is considerably wider than in October 2023 (43% negative, 29% positive). 

• When it comes to managing Northern Ireland’s interests with respect to the Windsor Framework, the UK Government is distrusted by 73% of voters - and trusted by only 9%. Voters are more likely to trust (43%) than distrust (38%) the European Commission/EU.  

• Northern Ireland business representatives continue to be the actors most trusted (52%) to manage Northern Ireland’s interests with respect to the Windsor Framework; 19% of respondents distrust them. 

For the full report and findings, please visit: https://www.qub.ac.uk/sites/post-brexit-governance-ni/ProjectPublications/OpinionPolling/TestingTheTemperature14/ 

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Media enquiries to Zara McBrearty on email: z.mcbrearty@qub.ac.uk