A new report from Queen’s shows that support for the Windsor Framework remains fragile in Northern Ireland. Half of respondents view it as ‘appropriate’ and ‘on balance a good thing’ for the region, compared to just over a third (37%) against. That figure has grown over the past year due to declining support for the Windsor Framework among those identifying as ‘slightly unionist’. In February 2024, 51% said it was a ‘good thing’, falling to 26% in April 2025.  

This report is the 13th in the ‘Testing the Temperature’ series on NI voters’ views on Brexit and the Protocol/Windsor Framework. This was originally produced as part of a four-year project led by Queen’s University and funded by the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC), part of UK Research and Innovation (UKRI) (2021-2024).

Ahead of the UK-EU summit on 19 May, two-thirds (66%) of Northern Ireland respondents say they generally approve of the current Government’s policy of pursuing closer relations with the EU. This includes 66% of ‘slightly unionist’, 88% of ‘neutrals’ and 96% of ‘nationalists’; in contrast, 74% of ‘strong unionists’ oppose this policy.

There are also differences between political communities in what they want to see from such a ‘reset’, with unionist respondents who support closer ties prioritising GB-NI movement of goods, 'strong nationalists' wanting to see increased UK-EU trade, and ‘neutrals’ prioritising security and defence.

Political affiliation also appears to affect people’s ‘experience’ of the Windsor Framework itself. When asked whether they have had direct experience of GB-based suppliers giving the Windsor Framework as the reason for not being able to fulfil an order from Northern Ireland, just over half (52%) agreed.

Speaking about the latest findings, Professor David Phinnemore from the School of History, Anthropology, Philosophy and Politics at Queen’s said: “The UK government will no doubt welcome evidence of majority support in Northern Ireland for its pursuit of closer relations with the EU. It cannot ignore, however, the evident drop we are seeing in the limited unionist support that exists for the Windsor Framework. If that trend is to be reversed, a closer UK-EU relationship needs to deliver on reducing obstacles to the GB-NI movement of goods.”

Professor Katy Hayward from the School of Social Sciences, Education and Social Work at Queen’s commented: “There have been several notable events relating to the Windsor Framework since our last poll, including those in which MLAs took centre stage. The effect seems largely to have widened the gap between unionists and nationalists/others in opinion on the topic. And so, the Windsor Framework continues to be a political and cultural issue as much as a practical concern.”

The report also found that Unionists have differing views to nationalists and others regarding some of the activity of MLAs in the Assembly on the Windsor Framework. Almost half of respondents (47%) disagree that unionist MLAs were right to vote, in December 2024, against democratic consent for the full application of the Windsor Framework. However, 92% of TUV, 94% of DUP and 67% of UUP supporters think it was the right decision. The poll also asked questions about unionist MLAs’ attempted use of the so-called ‘Stormont Brake’ in December 2024, and there are similar levels of endorsement for this among the supporters of the parties involved.

Other key findings include:  

• 58% think the Windsor Framework offers unique economic opportunities for Northern Ireland, down from 68% in June 2024. The drop in support from ‘slightly unionist’ voters is notable, down to 47% from 73% in June 2024, though still higher than ‘strong unionists’ (10%).
• Trust in the UK Government has improved. However, it remains the most distrusted (68%) and least trusted (11%) of all actors. Views on the European Commission/EU are almost evenly split, with 44% expressing trust and 42% distrust.
• Northern Ireland business representatives remain the most trusted on Windsor Framework issues, with 54% expressing trust and only 16% of respondents distrusting them.
• A majority (60%) of respondents believe that the Windsor Framework is being ‘undersold in terms of the dual market access opportunities’ it provides for NI producers.
• Put together, NI respondents would like the UK-EU talks to prioritise removing barriers to trade (including GB-NI), a UK-EU youth mobility arrangement, and an SPS agreement.
• The most significant gaps between male and female respondents centre on the role of MLAs. Females are much less supportive (32%) of MLAs attempt in December to pull the Stormont Brake than males (45%).

For the full report and findings, please visit https://www.qub.ac.uk/sites/post-brexit-governance-ni/ProjectPublications/OpinionPolling/TestingTheTemperature13/

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